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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000
 
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT... 
THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  NADINE IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NEARBY
COLD FRONT.  IN FACT...THE INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTION IS
STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO AN OCCLUDED MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON A 21/2226Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATING 40 TO 45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 50
KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
LATEST MARINE PREDICTION CENTER...MPC...FORECAST TRACK.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND 
UKMET MODELS...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL.
 
NADINE IS ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED DIFFLUENT TROUGH.
DUE TO THE SHEAR...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND COOL OCEAN WATER...
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS UNLIKELY.  NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE THE RAPID TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND... ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE
BAROCLINIC-TYPE INTENSIFICATION...RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.  THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.

ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN FOUND IN THE
MPC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AFOS/AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 36.3N  49.9W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     22/1200Z 38.1N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     23/0000Z 41.7N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     23/1200Z 47.5N  37.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     24/0000Z 55.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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