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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000

EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE APPARENTLY BASED ON A MID-LEVEL
CENTER...WHICH...BECAUSE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...WAS DISPLACED NORTHEAST
OF THE SURFACE CENTER.  AS A RESULT THE EARLIER ESTIMATED FORWARD
MOTION WAS TOO FAST TO THE NORTHEAST.  NADINE IS RELOCATED ON THIS
ADVISORY AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/11.  IN SPITE OF THE
SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR
CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR SO AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

WITH THE SHEARING AND SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND CURRENT
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.  ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE BAROCLINIC-
TYPE INTENSIFICATION...RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DATA FROM THE NOAA-15 ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDER UNIT...AMSU...
INDICATE THAT NADINE STILL HAS A WEAK WARM CORE...EVEN THOUGH THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLES THAT OF A POLAR FRONT CYCLONE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR NADINE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 35.3N  50.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 37.0N  49.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  45.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     23/0600Z 45.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/1800Z 51.0N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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