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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE HAS INTENSIFIED BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF AT LEAST 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
ALSO AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOW APPARENT IN BOTH INFRARED AND SSMI
MICROWAVE DATA.  A NEW BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CENTER AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.  OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH TRANSVERSE CIRRUS BANDING NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...
ALSO INDICATIVE OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/16. NADINE MADE AN EAST-NORTHEAST
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS IMPINGED ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PRESENT TO THE EAST AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...NADINE SHOULD RESUME A MORE NORTHEASTLY MOTION AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE
RAPID ACCELERATION AFTERWARDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.
 
BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE AND THE CURRENT
IMPRESSSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
NADINE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
FROM TAFB INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF NADINE. 
MERGER WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY
IS ONLY BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC EFFECTS...
WHICH COULD EVEN INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM SOME AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OCCURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 33.0N  54.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 35.0N  52.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 37.7N  49.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 40.6N  45.9W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/0000Z 45.0N  41.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/0000Z 54.5N  28.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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