HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/12.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND
CUTS OFF A LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
SATELITTE-BASED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC
ARE 3.0/2.5/2.0 WITH A CDO FEATURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN
THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG WESTERLIES
ALOFT...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS MODEST STRENGTHENING AS DOES THE
GFDL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS AT
24 HOURS AND CALLS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY 72 HOURS.
  
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 30.8N  57.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 32.1N  55.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 34.0N  53.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 36.5N  51.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
NNNN