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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000
 
MICHAEL CONTINUES AS A HURRICANE MAINTAINING ITS COMPACT WARM CORE
AND IS RACING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF THE TRANSITION
PROCESS IS VERY LOW. NEVERTHELESS...EITHER TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  SEE LOCAL FORECASTS PROVIDED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 46.0N  57.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 51.5N  51.5W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     20/1800Z 56.0N  40.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     21/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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