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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2000
 
MICHAEL IS ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 040/23...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ADVANCING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ARE RAPIDLY WARMING AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS MICHAEL
BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE WIND SPEED IS BEING
REDUCED ONLY TO 70 KT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 80+ KT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE NOAA P-3 STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
MEASUREMENTS WITHIN THE PAST 6-8 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS WATER
TEMPERATURES COOL AND CONVECTION DIMINISHES MICHAEL SHOULD WEAKEN
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE DEVELOPING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MICHAEL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
BEFORE LOSING ITS CIRCULATION...THE LATTER MAY WELL HAPPEN FIRST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 35.2N  66.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  63.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 42.8N  58.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW... 
 
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