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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2000

AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
MICHAEL IS BECOMING DISTORTED...AND WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM.  I AM KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT HURRICANE
STRENGTH PENDING THE 18Z RECON MISSION...WHICH MAY REVEAL THAT
WEAKENING IS UNDERWAY.  MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH A
POLAR FRONT CYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN A DAY OR SO.

BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...CENTER FIXES ARE LESS RELIABLE SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS PROBABLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
ONE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. AND THE ASSOCIATED STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD WHISK MICHAEL NORTHEASTWARD.   

THE WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY IN THE FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM TAKES ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 31.7N  70.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 33.5N  68.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  65.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 42.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED 
 
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