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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000
THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND
06Z. AT 00Z...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
KGWC...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT...THE
EYE HAS SOMETIMES BEEN HARD TO SEE AND THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING A BIT AS WELL. THE LATEST SSMI IMAGE ALSO IS SUGGESTIVE
OF SHEAR. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT RECON AIRCRAFT. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...BASED MOSTLY ON AN INVALID
PERSISTENCE COMPONENT...AND THE GFDL ALSO CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS I AM RELUCTANT TO GO
ALONG WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND INSTEAD WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY
CONSTANT FOR 24 HOURS.
THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE SETTLING DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 020/3. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSPOHY. MICHAEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
DEEPENING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS MICHAEL
APPROACHES THE ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT CYCLONE...WHICH IS PREDICTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. ...IT SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN
ACCELERATION THAT IS SLOWER THAN THE AVN OR GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE
FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 30.5N 70.8W 65 KTS
12HR VT 18/1200Z 31.2N 70.5W 65 KTS
24HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 69.2W 65 KTS
36HR VT 19/1200Z 36.5N 65.7W 55 KTS
48HR VT 20/0000Z 41.5N 60.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/0000Z ...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
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