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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000

MICHAEL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES. 
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS EYE...BUT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...MOSTLY WARMER THAN -60C. 
SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT AS
STRONG AS THE VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST...AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY ARE A
CONSENSUS 45 KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL...BASED ON THE EXCELLENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. 
WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS MICHAEL MOVES OVER
COLDER WATERS. 

THE STORM HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...AND MEANDERING...
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE RESULTING
STEERING CURRENT SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO START MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND DEEP-LAYER BAM
GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...AND
THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 29.8N  71.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 30.5N  70.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 32.0N  70.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  66.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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