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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
MICHAEL BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT
...DVORAK T2.5...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.
MODERATE CONVECTION...CLOUD TOPS OF -50C TO -60C...HAVE NOW
COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CENTRAL CORE. OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
 
MICHAEL HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...
WHILE MAKING A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO THE CONVECTION ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER.  MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING FLOW REGIME IN THE NECK OF A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE NORTHERN U.S.
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS
MICHAEL GETS PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS
SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IS CLOSE
TO THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO THE NORTH FOR A
PREVIOUSLY COLD-CORE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH NOT AN EYE FEATURE...THE
NEARLY CLOUD-FREE INNER CORE HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE CONVECTION ALL
THE WAY AROUND.  IF THIS SYSTEM WAS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...SUCH A
PATTERN WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
SURROUNDING CONVECTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE MICHAEL LATER TODAY WHICH
SHOULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 29.9N  70.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 30.5N  70.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.1N  70.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.2N  69.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  67.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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