HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
THE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL
CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT
06/2303Z REPORTED A PRESSURE DROP TO 1006 MB AND 1500 FT. WINDS OF
46 KT...AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION.  THOSE VALUES INDICATE THAT LESLIE
IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO 30 KT IS MAINTAINED AS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE GUST FACTOR WAS INCREASED IN
THE FORECAST/MARINE ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/14.  LESLIE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RUN.
LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE
LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL
MODEL.  THIS SCENARIO IS BETWEEN THE 12Z UKMET AND THE 00Z SHALLOW
BAM MODEL RUNS.
 
BASED ON THE LAST RECON REPORT...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER TO BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE AND MAKE LESLIE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THAT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS TONIGHT DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BY 24 TO 36 HOURS...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN INTO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z AVN AND 12Z
UKMET MODEL RUNS WHICH SHOW STEADY DEEPENING AFTER 36 HOURS
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 32.6N  70.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 34.3N  67.7W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     08/0000Z 38.7N  63.9W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     08/1200Z 42.5N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     09/0000Z 50.5N  52.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN