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TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
LESLIE LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO SEVERAL BANDS
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT IS
ENROUTE TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
FOUND EARLIER TODAY.  THERE IS LITTLE WIND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE CYCLONE TO
PROHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE EASIER TO FOLLOW TODAY...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/10.  THERE WAS A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT
EARLIER BUT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.  LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE AVN AND UKMET
DIG A MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ACCELERATION
IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFDL MODELS...LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FASTER BY DAY 3.  GIVEN THE
LIMITED WINDFIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME
TO SEE THE CLOSED CIRCULATION DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 30.3N  75.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.3N  73.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 30.6N  71.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.8N  68.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  64.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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