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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE OR WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY BEGINNING TO
ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.   IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
INTENSITY CHANGE IN PURE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WELL...IT IS EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT TO DO SO FOR A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  ALL THAT CAN BE SAID
AT THIS TIME IS THAT IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE SYMMETRIC...THE SYSTEM
WOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.   

THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE...THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  

BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 29.9N  77.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  75.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  73.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N  68.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  62.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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