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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB
AND A LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UP EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE CENTER INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. 
THEREFORE IT MAY NOT BE HELPING THE SYSTEM STRENGTHEN.  THE MAXIMUM
WINDS REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM ABOUT 06Z.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.  THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 060/8...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT
GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN A LARGE AREA OF GENERAL WESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL EAST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS...AND IS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTH BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PARTLY SHELTERING THE SYSTEM FROM WESTERLY
SHEAR.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE CURRENT STRONG CONVECTION THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CYCLONE TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH A LEVELING OFF OF THE
INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 29.8N  79.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.2N  78.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.6N  76.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  73.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.5N  70.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 34.5N  62.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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