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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
RECON SEVERAL HOURS AGO FOUND 700 MB WINDS OF 85 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
A 75 KT SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE.  I HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE DEEPENING
WAS NOT QUITE FINISHED IN GOING WITH 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CENTER IS ONLY A
FEW HOURS FROM THE COAST.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND
SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 22.3N  97.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  98.4W    75 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.8N  99.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT     07/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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