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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT KEITH HAS REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KNOTS
AT 700 MB...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB AND A CIRCULAR EYE OF 20
NAUTICAL MILES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...BOTH TAFB AND AIR FORCE
GLOBAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. KEITH HAS
AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...WITH A DISTINCT OUTFLOW JET TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LAND IS THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND KEITH
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
KEITH IS NOW MOVING 295/12. UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MEXICO AND THE
UNITED STATES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF
KEITH. THIS TYPE OF WARM HIGH IS IN GENERAL VERY PERSISTENT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 21.4N 96.7W 65 KTS
12HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 98.5W 70 KTS
24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 100.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 102.5W 20 KTS...INLAND
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