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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT KEITH HAS REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THIS IS BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KNOTS
AT 700 MB...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB AND A CIRCULAR EYE OF 20
NAUTICAL MILES IN DIAMETER.  IN ADDITION...BOTH TAFB AND AIR FORCE
GLOBAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH.  KEITH HAS
AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...WITH A DISTINCT OUTFLOW JET TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LAND IS THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND KEITH
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

KEITH IS NOW MOVING 295/12.  UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MEXICO AND THE
UNITED STATES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF
KEITH.  THIS TYPE OF WARM HIGH IS IN GENERAL VERY PERSISTENT AND
SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 21.4N  96.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  98.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 100.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/1800Z 25.0N 102.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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