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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
KEITH HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH TOPS OF -80C OR COLDER NEAR THE CENTER. 
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT FOUND THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 988 MB. 
THERE WAS A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND TO 80 KT...BUT THIS LOOKED LIKE SOME
SORT OF TRANSIENT FEATURE.  THERE WAS ALSO NO INDICATION AT THAT
TIME OF AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 60
KT...AND THERE IS EVERY EXPECTATION THAT KEITH WILL BE A HURRICANE
BY THE TIME THE NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT 06Z.

KEITH IS MOVING 290/11 ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN COAST IN 12-24 HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES.

KEITH IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE
SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.  THIS...COMBINED WITH
THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WARM WATER...INDICATES THAT STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY UP TO LANDFALL.  MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 75-80 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND KEITH SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE
MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WFO.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 20.9N  95.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  96.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.0N  98.5W    65 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  99.8W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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