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TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
RECON FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
995...SO KEITH IS NOW A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING AS WELL...SO KEITH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. 
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR
TRACK.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KEITH ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 20.4N  94.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N  95.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 22.2N  96.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.8N  98.0W    70 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/1800Z 25.5N  99.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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