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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE NOT ENTIRELY CLARIFIED THE
LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF KEITH.  THE CYCLONE HAS A DISTINCTIVE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE
LOW CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE
35 TO 55 KT...AND THERE WERE A COUPLE OF ALLEGEDLY UNCONTAMINATED
QUIKSCAT VECTORS SHOWING 40 KT.  GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CENTER IS NOT WHERE I THINK IT IS...I AM RELUCTANT TO UPGRADE KEITH
TO A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL RECON GETS OUT THERE AROUND 18Z.
REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION AND
SHOULD REGAIN THAT STATUS SOON.  I AM CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET LAST NIGHT OVER THE GULF SHOW ENOUGH OF
A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF TO KEEP KEITH ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST COURSE UNTIL LANDFALL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 20.2N  93.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 20.8N  94.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 21.9N  96.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  97.8W    60 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  99.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/1200Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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