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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2000

WITH A FEW IR IMAGES ONLY AND NO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE
CURRENT ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MAY BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT INDEED...
KEITH LOOKS LIKE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON IR IMAGES OR READY TO BE
ONE.  IN FACT...LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB SUGGEST WINDS UP TO
55 KNOTS.  I AM REALLY TEMPTED TO BRING KEITH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE THERE ARE NO GROUND OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE POSSIBLE CENTER TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND
BECAUSE THE CENTER MAY BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AS
SUGGESTED BY CONTINUITY...KEITH IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME.  EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL PLATFORMS FROM PEMEX
REPORTED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST OF 34 KNOTS AND 1001 MB PRESSURE
JUST TO THE WEST OF KEITH.  HOWEVER...I DO NOT KNOW HOW HIGH THESE
PLATFORMS ARE.   IF THE PRESENT TREND CONTINUES...KEITH COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. 

IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 9 KNOTS.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KEITH AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IN TIME.  THIS WOULD
ALLOW KEITH TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS.  THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK...TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS IS
PROVIDED BY NOGAPS...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL NEVER TO MOVE KEITH
NORTHWARD.  WATCHES OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL HELP TO DETERMINE
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF KEITH LATER TODAY. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 19.9N  92.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 20.4N  93.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 21.3N  94.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 22.4N  95.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  97.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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