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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST HAS OCCURRED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE ADJACENT COAST THIS EVENING WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER OF KEITH.  WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CARMEN AND
CAMPECHE DO NOT YET INDICATE KEITH IS STRENGTHENING... THIS MAY BE A
HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME ONCE THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS MOVING SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
295/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR
FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES.  A BUILDING DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PUSH IT ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE ONE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST
IS IF SOME KIND OF NORTHWARD TURN MIGHT OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN 48-72 HR IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE SOME TRACK GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THIS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL WAIT TO INDICATE SUCH A TURN IN CASE KEITH SHOULD PULL
SOME TRACK-ALTERING TRICKS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...
CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN 72 HR.  IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT KEITH WILL STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT QUICK TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AFTER IT
MOVES OFFSHORE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 19.1N  90.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  91.5W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
24HR VT     05/0000Z 20.3N  92.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.3N  94.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  96.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 25.0N  99.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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