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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
KEITH IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER...REVEALING A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE
EXPOSED CENTER ALLOWS US TO BE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS 290/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REJECTING A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD EASTERN
TEXAS OR LOUISIANA.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND KEEP KEITH ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT UNLIKE EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE.

KEITH WILL BE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ANOTHER 12 TO 18
HOURS OR SO WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE RELATIVELY INTACT.  ARGUING
AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BUT PERHAPS NOT
FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW KEITH TO EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 18.6N  89.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 18.9N  90.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.3N  91.8W    30 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  93.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 24.5N  98.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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