HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND KEITH IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. 
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING SMARTLY TO THE WEST OVER
SOUTHERN YUCATAN...BUT THERE MAY BE A LOWER LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST.

DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET MISSION IN THE GULF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE
DATA WERE WELL-ANALYZED BY THE AVN BUT SEEMINGLY NOT SO BY THE
UKMET.  UNFORTUNATELY THE AVN AGAIN HAS KEITH IN THE WRONG
PLACE...SO WE CANNOT RELY MUCH ON MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. 
GIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF...IT IS HARD TO SEE KEITH MAKING AS MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS
INDICATED BY THE BULK OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
RESTRENGTHENING ONCE KEITH GETS BACK OVER WATER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 18.3N  89.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.5N  90.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.1N  91.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.2N  92.4W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  93.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  95.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN