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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
HURRICANE KEITH HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT
LATEST RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT KEITH MAY HAVE BECOME STATIONARY...
AGAIN.  RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 975 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 85 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY OR A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. 
THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN TAKING KEITH SLOWLY NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  OF COURSE...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IT
STILL HAS NOT OCCURRED.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT AND
THE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
THAT MEANS THAT KEITH COULD EASILY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.  OBVIOUSLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
KEITH...IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM CENTER FINALLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 17.6N  87.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  87.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N  88.4W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  91.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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