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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
KEITH IS WEAKENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EFFECTS.  RECON REPORTS
THAT THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 950 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 109 KT.  WITH A PORTION OF THE EYEWALL OVER LAND
TODAY...THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT KEITH IS EXPERIENCING SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE
DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS EAST...AND THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS
BEING RESTRICTED AS WELL.  A RECENT DROPSONDE REPORTED A LOW-LEVEL
LAYER-MEAN WIND OF 119 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT
100 KT.  WITH A RECENT REPORT FROM AMBERGRIS CAY OF 120 MPH...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 110 KT AT THIS TIME.  KEITH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MORE OF ITS CIRCULATION EDGES ONSHORE. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
THE GULF COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND SOME
REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
AFTER A BRIEF WOBBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...KEITH HAS
RETURNED TO A GENERAL MOTION OF 270/2.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THE UKMET AND AVN SUGGEST THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND INCREASE
THE STEERING FLOW SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE.  THE UKMET BUILDS THIS
RIDGE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN AND AS A RESULT ITS TRACK IS FARTHER
TO THE WEST THAN THE AVN.  THE NEW GFDL IS NOT AS FAST AS ITS
PREDECESSOR AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...DEVASTATING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR NEAR THE PATH OF KEITH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 17.9N  87.9W   110 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  88.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.6N  88.3W    80 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.3N  88.6W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  89.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  91.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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