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HURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEITH IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES.  IT APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING AN EYE WHILE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS
TIME. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF KEITH IN
A FEW HOURS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. 

KEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING WESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE
INCLUDING GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND ITS
DERIVED GFDL WHICH TAKES KEITH WESTWARD...SUGGEST THAT KEITH SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. ON THIS
TRACK...KEITH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE MEMORY OF HURRICANE MITCH IS STILL VIVID WHEN ALL
MODELS TOOK THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THE HURRICANE MOVED SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST NOT FAR FROM THIS AREA.  

BELIZE SHOULD BE READY TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO
HURRICANE WARNING IF THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 18.0N  86.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.9N  87.1W    80 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N  87.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 20.8N  87.8W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     02/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W    55 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     03/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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