HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM KEITH HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND A RECENT
RECON FLIGHT FOUND 850 MB WINDS OF 67 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AND A PRESSURE OF 985 MB.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...JUST BELOW MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.
OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6 BASED ON RECENT RECON FIXES. 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME IF THIS IS A TRUE
MOTION VECTOR OR MAINLY DUE TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. 
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES KEITH NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD IN
ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS WHICH TAKES KEITH WEST AND
SOUTHWEST.  THE STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR TO BE WEAK BASED ON 30/00Z
UPPER-AIR DATA.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS PINCHED OFF TO THE WEST AND DROPPED SOUTH TO
BELIZE OVERNIGHT. THIS SMALL LOW MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTWARD
JOG THAT KEITH HAS MADE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THIS
MOTION LAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND TAKES KEITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...AVN...AND UKMET MODELS.
 
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...
A CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF ONE DVORAK T-
NUMBER PER DAY UNTIL EXPECTED LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
THIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH MAY CAUSE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD
BE TAKEN.
 
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KEITH.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 18.1N  86.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N  86.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 20.4N  87.2W    85 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 21.5N  87.5W    70 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN