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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
AN ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR GOES-8 SATELLITE FROM 0300 TO 0630 UTC HAS
MADE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER FOR JOYCE. 
ALSO...SURFACE OBS ARE SPARSE AND THERE IS NO RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS.

BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE APART ON A CENTER FIX
BASED UPON THE 0645 UTC PICTURE...WITH AIR FORCE GLOBAL IN BETWEEN. 
ALL POSITIONS ARE BELOW 12 DEGREES NORTH.  THEREFORE...I AM LEANING
HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.  
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER...FURTHER CONFUSING THE ISSUE.  THE OUTFLOW STILL
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES...
HISTORICALLY DO NOT DEVELOP. THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN
THE DEPRESSION REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE JOYCE LATER ON THIS
MORNING.

THE RECON DATA PLUS VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES LATER THIS MORNING
MAY FORCE A REPOSITIONING FOR THE 12 UTC POSITION.
 
A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE.  INITIAL MOTION
REMAINS AT 285/13.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS INCLUDING THE AVIATION MODEL. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 12.4N  65.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.0N  67.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N  69.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  72.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.2N  75.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 17.0N  80.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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