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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
JOYCE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE
REASONS ARE THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT GOOD AS THIS
MORNING AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DECREASED...ALTHOUGH SOME
BANDING FEATURES ARE REFORMING.  THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A
WELL DEFINED AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IN FACT... BETTER 
ESTABLISHED THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB ONLY AND THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FEW REPORTS FROM THE PLANE
OF 40 KNOT WINDS ARE WELL TO THE EAST IN RAINBANDS AND ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH REPORTS FROM BARBADOS OF TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
 
THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND I WOULD DARE TO SAY THAT IT IS
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH THE OLD TIMERS CALL THE HURRICANE
GRAVEYARD.  HISTORICALLY...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS... TROPICAL
CYCLONES DO NOT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN THE DEPRESSION
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IF IT SURVIVES.  MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IMMEDIATELY RESTRENGTHEN JOYCE BUT THAT IT IS NOT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
JOYCE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 11.9N  62.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 12.4N  64.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.0N  67.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N  70.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  73.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  79.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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