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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  ONE POSSIBLE
EXPLANATION FOR THE DETERIORATION OF JOYCE COULD BE STRONG LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES WHICH IS DECOUPLING THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER.  THIS IS SUGGESTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE CLOUD MOTION
VECTORS OVER THE AREA.  AS NOTED EARLIER...JOYCE IS MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FROM THE STANDPOINT OF
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR ANIMATION.  ANALYSES
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ALSO SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...SO FAR JOYCE IS
NOT RECOVERING FROM ITS EARLIER DISORGANIZATION.  IN VIEW OF THE
LATTER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER ON...JOYCE IS FORECAST
TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  HOWEVER THAT PREDICTION SHOULD BE
VIEWED AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...270/14.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER MEAN
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
AVN MODEL RUN.  IN A LIMITED SAMPLE...THAT MODEL HAS BEEN AN
OUTSTANDING PERFORMER FOR JOYCE THUS FAR.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
BARBADOS SOON.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 10.5N  51.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 10.7N  52.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 11.5N  55.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 12.5N  57.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N  59.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  62.0W    75 KTS
 
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