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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000
 
THE CENTER IS BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION AND SOME CURVED BANDS TO THE
SOUTH HAVE DEVELOPED.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE ARC CLOUDS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS NONDESCRIPT.  THIS
IN GENERAL MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  JOYCE IS OVER WARM WATER
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING LATER ON. SHIPS BRINGS JOYCE TO 97
KNOTS AND THE GFDL LOWERS THE PRESSURE TO NEAR 963 MB BY DAY THREE.

JOYCE IS MOVING 255/12 WHILE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET IS SCHEDULE TO FLY SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
MISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP TO DETERMINE THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF JOYCE UNTIL SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 11.1N  45.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 10.5N  47.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 10.5N  50.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 10.5N  52.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 11.0N  54.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N  58.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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