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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000
 
THE SMALL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM MICROWAVE PASS IS NO LONGER
VISIBLE...AND THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB.  GIVEN
THE DETERIORATING MICROWAVE PRESENTATION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 72 HOUR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  JOYCE SHOULD TRACK BASICALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.  LONGER TERM...THE FATE OF JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON HOW
CLOSE AN APPROACH IS MADE BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE HURRICANE.  THERE IS AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVN AND
THE UKMET THIS MORNING.  THE UKMET SOLUTION IS MORE OMINOUS...IN
THAT IT BOTH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW WITH ITS ATTENDANT SHEAR FARTHER
AWAY FROM JOYCE...AND ULTIMATELY TRACKS THE CYCLONE WELL INTO THE
CARIBBEAN.  THE AVN/MRF SOLUTION BRINGS THE UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH
TO JOYCE TO HINDER STRENGTHENING...AND ALSO SHOWS MORE OF A
NORTHWARD TURN SO THAT THE HURRICANE SKIRTS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  IT
IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW AT THIS POINT WHICH SCENARIO...IF EITHER...
WILL VERIFY.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THAT A GREATLY WEAKENED SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

A TENTATIVE TASKING HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET TO FLY
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
HELP RESOLVE THESE QUESTIONS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 12.5N  42.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.5N  44.3W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 12.5N  46.6W    85 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.5N  48.9W    85 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.7N  51.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 13.5N  55.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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