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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND A SMALL CDO HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. 
ALSO...A 26/2012Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 15 NM DIAMETER BANDED
EYE FEATURE THAT WAS ABOUT 75 PERCENT CLOSED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND A
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  THE RIDGE BETWEEN JOYCE AND
ISAAC TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
JOYCE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS WHICH TAKE JOYCE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE
CURRENT POSITION AND EVEN TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF 10N LATITUDE. 
THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET
MODEL...WHICH KEEPS JOYCE MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST.
 
JOYCE MAY UNDERGO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE SSMI DATA
PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...UNLIKE HURRICANE ISAAC TO 
THE NORTH...JOYCE HAS A LESS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN WHICH MAY
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY
FROM ANY EFFECTS OF ISAAC.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS JOYCE TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS.


FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 11.8N  36.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.9N  38.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N  40.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 12.1N  42.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N  44.3W    80 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  49.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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