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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOYCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
CURVED BANDING FEATURES BECOMING QUITE PROMINENT.  DEEP CONVECTION
IS STILL NOT THAT ABUNDANT...BUT IT IS PRESENTLY ON THE INCREASE. 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS ON THE BASIS OF A T2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZING
TREND...A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM
OCEAN WATERS...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.  A
SIMILAR INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ABOUT 275/12.  APPARENTLY A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BETWEEN JOYCE AND ISAAC AND IS INDUCING THE
WESTWARD MOTION.  OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL SHOWING EVEN
A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE DEEP LAYER STEERING...THE U.K. MET OFFICE...AND THE EXPERIMENTAL
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
TO THE WEST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 11.7N  34.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 11.8N  36.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 11.9N  38.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N  41.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 12.0N  43.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 12.0N  47.0W    70 KTS
 
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