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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 25 2000
THE TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISAAC HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...SO ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN. TOPS IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
WARMING AS THE DIURNAL MINIMUM APPROACHES...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR
A SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD
RE-DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. ASIDE FROM ISAAC TO THE NORTHWEST...
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT STEERING FEATURE IS A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS RIDGE TO BUILD
WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC. THIS WOULD...IF THERE IS NO
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND ISAAC...MOVE THE DEPRESSION
IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH ISAAC...AND THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
MOTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS SUPPORT THIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO
WITH THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 72 HR.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT...WITH FAIR TO GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME KIND
OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM...
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE FORECASTS VERIFY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH DEVELOPMENT...TAKING THE SYSTEM
TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.5N 31.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 26/0600Z 11.7N 33.3W 35 KTS
24HR VT 26/1800Z 12.2N 35.9W 40 KTS
36HR VT 27/0600Z 12.6N 38.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 27/1800Z 13.0N 41.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 28/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W 60 KTS
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