HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

ISAAC IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 27 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE EYE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT
AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  MOREOVER...THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS LOSING ITS SYMMETRY AND BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE
NORTH.  CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT 90 KNOTS FOLLOWING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ISAAC SHOULD LOSE MOST OF
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER.

THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL
MOTION IS 010/16.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE STEERING BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BECOMES DOMINANT.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 33.7N  55.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 36.0N  54.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 39.0N  50.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  46.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/1800Z 52.0N  20.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN