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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIRLY CLASSICAL APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CDO AND THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS HAVE NOT WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE.  HENCE...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS STILL
105 KNOTS.  ISAAC IS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW...AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER 28 DEG C WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ISAAC SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS LIKELY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE
NEARS THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOMORROW SHOULD BYPASS ISAAC...WITH A RATHER
ZONAL FLOW IN THE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH STEERING FLOW TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/U.K. MET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS...GUNS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 25.6N  53.5W   105 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 27.3N  55.1W   110 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 30.1N  56.2W   110 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  55.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 36.0N  53.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 41.0N  47.0W    90 KTS
 
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