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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
 
ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND A COLD CONVECTIVE EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 102 KT...102 KT...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB...AND
SOME OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 110-115 KT
RANGE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 100 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/14.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH A BROAD DEEP
LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS COMBINATION SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE ISAAC TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING ON HOW FAST IT WILL
MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR 48 HR...AND LITTLE TO THE EAST AND FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AT 72 HR.

ISAAC HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND
FAIR TO POOR OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER
STRENGTHENING WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK MOVES ISAAC INTO GRADUALLY COOLER WATER AFTER 36
HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UP TO
THAT TIME FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 23.2N  51.0W   100 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 24.6N  52.7W   105 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 26.8N  54.7W   110 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.9N  55.8W   115 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  56.0W   115 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 38.5N  51.5W   110 KTS
 
 
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