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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
 
ISAAC HAS A VERY GOOD PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS
DEFINITELY MUCH BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IT HAS A DISTINCT EYE
SURROUNDED BY RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT.
RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE BUT THE
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO ONLY AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE T 6.0
PERSISTS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...WINDS WILL BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SSTS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ISAAC TO 105 KNOTS AS
SUGGESTED BY SHIPS BUT COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER.
 
THE FORECAST IS EASIER TODAY. MODEL FORECAST TRACKS ARE TIGHTLY
PACKED...TURNING ISAAC GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS
IS THE TRACK YOU SHOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE PRESENT AND FORECAST
STEERING PATTERN.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 22.3N  50.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N  52.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.5N  54.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  55.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  56.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  54.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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