HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2000

ISAACS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS BEING IMPEDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE EYE
OR A WARM SPOT IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 90 KNOTS AS PER DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM METEOROLOGISTS AT TAFB
MIAMI...SAB WASHINGTON...AND THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME MORE WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ISAAC...BUT THE HURRICANE
HAS A LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT
RESILIENT TO THE SHEAR.   HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM GETS MORE DISRUPTED-
LOOKING LATER TODAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 30N.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...UNTIL ISAAC NEARS THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL RUNS USING EITHER THE NCEP
AND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 17.4N  40.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  42.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  44.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  46.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  48.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N  52.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN