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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2000

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE
CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT THIS TIME OF DAY WITH IMMATURE
SYSTEMS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  AT 18Z SHIP PCCY
REPORTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH A PRESSURE OF
1008 MB.  
 
THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z AVN...WHICH PLACES THE LARGER OF TWO
VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER 200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DEPRESSION...DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTION.  IN FACT...THE DEPRESSION GETS ABSORBED INTO THIS FEATURE
AND THE RESULTANT LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE UKMET ANALYZES
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE EAST BUT IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE AVN...
AND AS A RESULT HAS A TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.  BOTH GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE NEAR 20N40W IN 72 HOURS THAT
WE BELIEVE WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION FROM RECURVING DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE FIRST
GFDL RUN ON THIS SYSTEM...KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND LBAR MODELS.
 
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT IN 72 HOURS...
BUT THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATA SET FOR SHIPS ONLY INCLUDES DEPRESSIONS
THAT INTENSIFIED.  THE GFDL FORECASTS ABOUT 60 KT IN 72 H.  SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE
WATER IS WARM SO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 12.1N  25.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.7N  27.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.2N  29.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N  32.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N  34.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N  40.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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