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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2000

AFTER ALMOST DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE POORLY-DEFINED CATEGORY.  ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND THIS INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY SHIP 9VBL REPORTING 26 KT AND 1008.7 MB AT 20Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/16.  THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE
U.S. GREAT PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
WITH THE CYCLONE LOOKING SLIGHTLY MORE HEALTHY...THE QUESTION ARISE
OF WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER THE
GULF...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS SYSTEM HAS A
PERSISTENT HISTORY OF NOT DEVELOPING.  SHIPS GUIDANCE SAYS IT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFDL SAYS IT SHOULD NOT.  GIVEN THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STICK WITH
PERSISTENCE UNTIL THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF REAL STRENGTHENING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 23.9N  86.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N  87.6W    25 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 28.5N  88.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 31.4N  87.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.0N  84.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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