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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000

AFTER EXTENSIVE INVESTIGATION...THE NOAA PLANE FINALLY REPORTED WEST
WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER INDICATING THAT A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN EXISTS.  THUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
HAS REGENERATED AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED.  THE
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED...BUT WITH THE
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST.  

MOVEMENT IS ABOUT 295/14.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
WEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AROUND THAT TIME.  THIS COULD TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEND BY DAY 3.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA
SHORTLY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2300Z 19.9N  80.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N  82.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  84.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.0N  86.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N  86.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.0N  85.0W    55 KTS
 
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