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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
NIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY STILL INDICATES A POORLY
DEFINED DEPRESSION.  THE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A
BAND...BUT THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE WEST.  THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10.  A LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE ANTICYCLONE SEEN EARLIER OVER THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL
DEFINED NOW...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N58W.  LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 36
HR...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...BUT MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE EASTERLY SHEAR. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES WILL FAVOR
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 16.0N  55.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.2N  56.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N  59.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.5N  62.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N  66.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  72.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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