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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
GORDON HAS REACHED THE COAST JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...A PRESSURE OF
994.5 MB WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THAT STATION.
 
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
VANISHED...AND GORDON'S SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS HARDLY THAT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  YET...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT A FAIRLY SMALL
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A DISTINCT WARM CORE.  EVEN THOUGH THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...850
MB...THE LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION IMPLIES THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT
BE WELL MIXED TO THE SURFACE.  IN FACT OBSERVATIONS FROM CEDAR KEY
SHOWED SUSTAINED...10 MINUTE MEAN...WINDS OF 46 KNOTS WITH A PEAK
GUST TO 59 KNOTS...PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KNOTS.  WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS GORDON MOVES OVER LAND.  LATER ON...THE STRENGTH OF THE
STORM WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THE CENTER MOVES.  SOME GUIDANCE MODELS...SUCH AS THE LATEST
GFDL RUN...INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL INLAND.  IN ANY
EVENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
 
RECON FIXES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TEMPORARY.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/10.  GORDON IS
EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO HIGHER LATITUDE  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...ALBEIT
SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 29.3N  83.2W    60 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 30.9N  82.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  79.6W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     19/1200Z 36.0N  76.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     20/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     21/0000Z 44.5N  61.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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