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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RECON COULD ONLY FIND 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE...GORDON IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...
RECON HAS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED BY
5 MB SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE SHEAR...AND THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 985 MB.  SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE BROAD CENTER OR EYE
FEATURE DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/12...OR EVEN 020/12 IF ONE GOES
FROM RECON FIX TO RECON FIX.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A
LITTLE EAST OF THE RECON POSITION AND ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC
CENTER OF THE CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  DUE TO THE NEW CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
CENTER...THERE MAY BE SOME LARGE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK UNTIL GORDON
MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING.  GORDON
MAY MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE GEROGIA-
FLORIDA BORDER AND TRACK CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE AS A
HYBRID SYSTEM UNTIL PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS WHERE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE NEW 17/12Z UKMET MODEL RUN WHICH
KEEPS GORDON MOSTLY OVER OPEN OCEAN AFTER 18 HOURS.

GORDON MAY MAKE ONE LAST GASP AT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL BASED ON THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS.  HOWEVER...WITH SUCH
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...ITS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WILL REGAIN
HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO WHETHER OR NOT GORDON TRACKS
OVER WATER OR STAYS OVER LAND...AND ALSO WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
MORE BAROCLINIC.  
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 28.6N  83.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 30.1N  82.3W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     18/1800Z 32.8N  80.0W    45 KTS...
36HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  76.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     19/1800Z 38.5N  72.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/1800Z 44.1N  61.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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