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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000

HURRICANE GORDON HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SHEARING CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.   HOWEVER...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW EXPOSED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SOME WEAKENING MAY BE OCCURRING AS INDICATED BY RECENT
RECON REPORTS SHOWING THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING.  HOWEVER...RECON
ALSO FOUND 73 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 64 KT
SURFACE WINDS...AND THIS IS REASON FOR KEEPING GORDON AT MINIMAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/14.  THERE MAY SOME WOBBLING
ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BEING EXPOSED.  HOWEVER...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW CONVERGING
WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA IN 8
TO 12 HOURS.  THE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM NOW. 
AFTER MOVING OVER NORTH FLORIDA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE GFDL AND AVN
MODELS HAVE BEEN STEADILY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACKS.  WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE
WEST OF GORDON...AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY...I FEEL THE HURRICANE SHOULD TRACK A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN MERGE WITH THE
COLD FRONT LYING OFF THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE UKMET
MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS AND TO THE LEFT OF THE UKMET AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AFTERWARDS.

AFTER PEAKING AT 981 MB EARLIER THIS MORNING...GORDON APPEARS TO BE
ON A STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ANY BAROCLINIC EFFECTS MAY BE AFFECTING GORDON.
ITS DOUBTFUL THAT GORDON WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...BUT
IT ALSO MAY NOT WEAKEN VERY MUCH.  BY 24 HOURS...GORDON MAY MERGE
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. I HAVE
KEPT THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN CASE STRONG UPPER-
AIR DYNAMICS KICK IN AND MAKE GORDON A HYBRID SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.
 
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE GULF COAST WARNINGS.  THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A TROPICAL WATCH EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM LITTLE RIVER TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

NOTE...TORNADOES WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 27.8N  83.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 29.6N  82.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     18/1200Z 32.3N  80.3W    50 KTS...
36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  77.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     19/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W    50 KTS...
72HR VT     20/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    50 KTS...
 
 
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