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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 985 MB AND THAT
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW ENCIRCLE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THAT
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
 
THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH
A TIGHT CLUSTERING IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.  THE GFDL MODEL
...AND ESPECIALLY THE 18Z AVN MODEL...HAVE NOW SWUNG AROUND FARTHER
EAST IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACKS.  ONLY THE AVN MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND IT TAKES
GORDON NEAR APALACHICOLA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL WAS
SLOW AND FARTHER WEST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD...THE
NARROW RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BULGE NORTHWARD A LITTLE
FURTHER WHICH SHOUDL KEEP GORDON ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK. 
HOWEVER.. AFTER ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND ST. MARKS. 
THE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL AND A LITTLE
EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GORDON MAY INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IF THE SHEAR LETS UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS TO BECOME VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND A CLOSED EYEWALL TO FORM.  DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY
WEST INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISPLACED ABOUT
15 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RECON SURFACE POSITIONS. UNTIL THE
SHEAR LETS UP...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR.  FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST WHICH WOULD ACT TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF 29N LATITUDE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 25.7N  85.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N  84.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 29.0N  83.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 31.2N  81.8W    55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     19/0000Z 33.5N  80.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     20/0000Z 38.5N  75.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
  
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