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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 983 MB AND THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING
HURRICANE FORCE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DISRUPT THE CLOUD PATTERN.  HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
LANDFALL.
 
PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATED THAT GORDON SLOWED DOWN WHILE
REORGANIZING BUT...LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 TO 9 KNOTS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD A DEVELOPING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTH FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE TO A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL WHICH IN FACT BRINGS
THE CENTER JUST WEST OF APALACHICOLA.  
 
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL
INTERESTS FROM ALABAMA TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 24.8N  85.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.7N  85.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 27.8N  84.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  83.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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