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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC
OVERNIGHT.  THE RATHER UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS GORDON NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL TOWARD
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR SO AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT 500 MB.

THE 00Z GFDL HAS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE 18Z GFDL MODEL.  ALSO THE UKMET
HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK 180 DEGREES AND IS NOW ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF
HEADING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS SMALL SHIFT
RESULTS IN A LANDFALL ABOUT 100 MILES FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE
UPPER FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THE FOWARD MOTION IS ALSO SLOWED SOME
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THIS RESULTS IN DELAYING LANDFALL TO
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  SO THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE HURRICANE WATCH AT
THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST
IN SIX HOURS OR SO.  

THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  THE RECENT RECONNAISANCE FLIGHT
REPORTED 997 MB...DOWN 11 MB IN 18 HOURS...AND THE MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED REPORTED WAS 59 KNOTS AT 850 MB EAST OF THE CENTER.  ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE...MAINLY
DUE TO THE WARM GULF WATERS.

IT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL
INTERESTS FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 23.4N  86.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 24.5N  86.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  85.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 27.5N  85.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  84.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 34.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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